A Plea To Canadians: The Liberals, NDP and Greens can beat the Conservatives (if they work together)
Poilievre Is A Return To Harper
The Harper years were a dark time for democracy, the environment, science, journalism, women, Indigenous people, everyone, really. That's why Canadians voted to get rid of him in 2015. Young Poilievre started his lengthy political career as an egg under Stephen Harper's rump. Now he's running for Prime Minister.
Poilievre claims he's part of the housing solution by virtue of being a landlord, when, in fact, landlords (like him) are a significant cause of the problem. I can imagine his solution would be tax breaks for landlords (himself), rather than the proven decommodification approach.
Far too many Members of Parliament (MP) from every political party are landlords, including the main party leaders. This raises serious questions about whose interests they represent, landlords or tenants.
The affordability crisis is everywhere, not just Canada. It's a result of global capitalism, i.e. the conditions in which people who already have more money than they know what to do with, experience feelings of inadequacy if they can't maintain an upward trajectory of profit.
I doubt Poilievre, or any other political leader, will be able to bring rising costs under control without radical transformation of the economic system.
Voters need to be realistic about what to expect.
A Centre-Left Coalition To Stop Poilievre
Justin Trudeau's Liberals have made progress on climate change. It wasn't difficult. Harper left an empty slate. Instead of building on Trudeau's progress, Poilievre aims to destroy it and offers no alternative. We can't afford to go back.
The Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens are united on several issues: pro-feminism, pro-LGBTQ*, pro-democracy, anti-racism, understanding the need to address climate change, universal healthcare, and the CBC.
Until recently, the NDP and the Liberals had a special agreement to work together. Canadians got a dental care package out of it. That saved my pensioning mother money she doesn't have and allowed her to get urgent dental work done. That's the kind of initiative people in Canada need.
Votes of the centre-left are split between the Liberals, the NDP, and Greens. The Conservative Party of Canada, being the only real right-wing option, has a major electoral advantage.
To counter this advantage, the Liberals, the NDP, and Greens could form a coalition, like political parties do in countries with proportional representation. The catch is that Canada's unfair electoral system requires coalitions to be formed before elections.
The three parties will need to decide which candidates are most likely to beat Conservatives in each riding and run only those candidates.
In a riding where it's likely to be a race between the NDP and the Conservatives, the Liberal and Green Party candidates should be withdrawn. The reason needs to be explained to the public: to ensure that the Conservatives don't form a government. I think voters will understand.
In a riding where a Liberal is expected to come in second to the Conservatives, the NDP and Green Party should be withdrawn. In a riding where the Green candidate is expected to do better than the Liberals or NDP, run only the Green candidate. Not all of them will win, but with this strategy the chances will increase.
According to recent polls, 46.2% of people are saying they will vote for either the Liberals, the NDP, or the Greens. 42.4% say they will vote Conservative. These figures are from CBC's PollTracker on February 11, 2025. A Liberal-NDP-Green coalition is likely to win.
You might object: the recent German SPD-FPD-Green minority coalition collapsed prematurely. That was because the FPD were uncooperative and blocked or sought to water down many of the SPD and Green motions. Here is a useful lesson for a successful coalition: work together with your partners.
When it comes election time, I'm going to vote for the party most likely to beat the Conservatives. I'm not alone in this way of thinking. The Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens can make the choice easier for people like me. Figure it out together who I'm going to vote for.
The Transition To Green Capitalism
I'm beginning to realise the green transition is well underway. It looks like war, slavery, and ecocide. Ukraine and about half of Africa are locked into wars for territorial control over regions rich in critical metals. Metals used to manufacture electric cars, solar panels, wind turbines, cell phones, computers, drones, weapons, computers that will run artificial intelligence. You name it.
It's not the green transition I'm advocating for. It's business as usual that uses the appeal of sustainability without any substance.
The United States is competing with China, Russia, and the European Union for control over the supply chain. Trump is threatening to annex Canada and Greenland as part of his strategy. It's unnerving, to say the least. Trump and Musk likely picked up this strategy from Putin.
The division of western military allies is part of Putin's plan to win the war in Ukraine. Putin's tools are disinformation distributed on social media and far right parties in western democracies. If western countries are busy fighting each other, they will probably stop supplying aid to Ukraine.
The world must be united against Trump. The US Senate and Congress need to reclaim their democracy and scale back the powers of the president. I have no confidence in Poilievre to stand up to Trump. Many of his supporters are also Trump fans.
Perhaps the love for Trump is dwindling now that reality has begun to set in. Leyland Cecco's interpretation of the recent election polls in Canada suggests Poilievre's popularity is waning in connection to Trump. The Liberals may be having a resurgence. It's good news, but it might not be enough.
Musk endorsed Poilievre. Poilievre responded to the endorsement in a press conference that he would like for Musk to open factories in Canada. Of course Poilievre's comments were before the tariffs and Musk's inaugural Nazi salute, but these aren't the first indication of Musk's extremist agenda. Musk's endorsement puts the Conservative Party of Canada in company with fascist parties like Reform UK and Germany's AFD, both have pro Putin stances.
This Hour Has 22 Minutes, a Canadian comedy show, made a dry rundown listing the parallels between Trump and Poilievre. It not that funny, but informative.
Trump signed an execute order abolishing the rights of Americans to identify as trans, arguably becoming the first female president of the USA. Poilievre followed suit, announcing that there are only two genders. Amnesty International denounced his theatrics as “dangerous distraction”. This is what I believe we can expect from Poilievre, a Trump copycat.
A member of my family said that by supporting Donald Trump, he is protecting his (nuclear) family. It doesn't make sense why a Canadian would think that. He sees migrants as threats and welcomed the transphobic announcement from Poilievre. He fell for the lie, but his folly doesn't happen in a vacuum. He consumes right-wing media. His colleagues and friends all believe the same things. None of them think for themselves.
Community can be a force of good when members think critically and have empathy. A community of mindless followers is capable of all kinds of evil.
A Brief Political History Of A Conservative Stronghold, A Case Study of Brandon-Souris
I was a stupid, apolitical teenager when Harper became prime minister. I listened to him speak on the evening news and believed in him.
I started university a few years later. I was caught up in a crowd of people trying to get high school teacher Dave Barnes elected as a Green Party MP. I didn't know that the Green Party existed until then. I volunteered. I had time. The university was on strike.
I paid my ten dollars and became a member of the Green Party, and stuffed a thousand mailboxes with pamphlets saying “Vote for Dave Barnes”. I remember handing a pamphlet to a man in his driveway who refused to take it. “He'll split the vote,” He said.
Dave did pretty well. 5,410 votes. The NDP candidate, Jean Luc Bouché, beat Dave. 6,055 votes. Used car salesman and Conservative Party candidate, Merv Tweed got 19,558 votes and won.
Barnes did split the vote, but did that really matter? Over 50% of the vote was for Tweed.
I remember one Green Party member saying after processing the results, “well, back to anarchy”. The people involved in getting Dave Barnes his votes began to leave Brandon. I eventually left too.
The next election (2011) saw Tweed's popularity grow. People weren't necessarily voting for him. He didn't do anything. They were voting for Stephen Harper, in the frenzy of Harpermania and the dirty oil it was subsidizing, still subsidized under Trudeau.
Barnes got fewer votes that time, but support for Jean Luc Bouché grew. Jack Layton was leading the NDP and many thought he had a good chance at winning. People wanted Jack Layton to be prime minister.
I was working at a polling station checking IDs and registering unregistered voters. A man came in and said to me, “I haven't voted in twenty years. Today I'm going to vote for someone who will make a difference.” He was probably talking about Jack Layton. He was a hulking loud man. Someone also working the polling station said I should kick him out. I shrugged. I wasn't going to kick that man out. Sadly, Jack Layton passed away a few months later. Cancer. Stephen Harper remained.
By 2013, Merv Tweed spent enough years on the payroll to get him his pension. He resigned and Larry Maguire was the new Conservative candidate. He was, at the time, a Member of the Manitoba Legislative Assembly (MLA). Maguire and Tweed were in sync. Maguire had been an MLA long enough to get his pension. Now he could go for that MP pension too.
Liberal candidate Rolf Dinsdale had a chance to beat Maguire. One less seat for Harper, one more for hopeful newcomer, Justin Trudeau. For the first time since 1980, conservative votes dipped below 50%. People were starting to get fed up with Stephen Harper.
Dinsdale lost, but it was close. 12,205 votes to 11,816. Turnout was also below 50%. When Conservatives are unhappy, they don't vote. Support for the NDP and the Green Party was down from previous elections, 1,996 and 1,349 respectively.
Had the people who voted Green and NDP voted strategically instead, Maguire would have relived his 1993 Brandon-Souris MP campaign. He'd probably still be an MLA.
1993 was the only election in Brandon-Souris history where a non-conservative won. It wasn't due to a wellspring of support for the winning candidate. The majority of the votes were split between two rival conservative parties. Liberal candidate Glen McKinnon won with only 33% of the vote.
Conservative rivals overcame their differences and merged to form the Conservative Party of Canada in 2004 under the leadership of Stephen Harper. The end of conservative vote splitting had come and Merv Tweed's political career could begin. Joining forces wins elections.
During an Alberta election in 2005, the vote was split by rival conservative parties, enabling the NDP to form a majority government. That broke the conservative streak that began in 1935. The rival factions came to an agreement and created the United Conservative Party. Conservatives were back in power in 2009 and have remained ever since.
In Saskatchewan, the more right-wing Liberal Party of Saskatchewan and the Progressive Conservatives joined forces. They formed the Saskatchewan Party. Their goal was to end an NDP government that had been in power since 1991. In 2007 the Saskatchewan Party achieved their goal and they are still in power.
Votes As Messages From The Unrepresented
There's a feeling of political gridlock in conservative strongholds like Brandon-Souris. Non-conservatives still vote for Liberal, NDP, and Green candidates knowing they won't win. They send a message that non-conservatives are still here, without a representative.
Others don't bother to vote, unless they feel like it's going to make a difference. An overabundance of options under First Past The Post breeds electoral apathy, discouraged by vote splitting.
In the next election, organizing will help. If parties refuse to work together, citizens can organize to vote together.
Voting As Damage Control
I'm not a member of the Green Party anymore, though I would vote for them if I believed my vote would beat a conservative candidate. The government may only achieve patchwork. Real action has to come from the people. Voting in elections is more about damage control.
During the 2024 US presidential campaign, people were rightly devastated by their government's complacency in the Gaza genocide. They argued against the idea of voting as damage control and lesser evils. They argued against voting.
Outside of Annexing Canada, Greenland, and Panama, Trump is floating the idea of displacing all Palestinians in Gaza and annexing the Gaza Strip to developing sea side properties for the rich. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu could barely conceal his smile during that press conference. To top it off, the US is selling $7.4 billion worth of weapons to Israel.
Anti-fascist and ecological action has to come from dedicated communities of people who recognize injustice, have the brains to think, and the will to act. Effective action is most possible when people can act rather than react to widening injustices caused by the government. That's what damage control is all about.
It would have been nice if Trump wasn't elected. Trump overwhelms us all. He has empowered hate groups to take to the streets with guns and wave Nazi flags.
Elections do matter. A vote isn't an endorsement. If you have the privilege to vote, make it worthwhile.
Time To Act
In the second round of the 2024 French legislative election, leftist parties formed a coalition called The Popular Front. They organized it in a week. They saw an urgent need to deny the far right their predicted electoral victory. As a result, the far right got third.
During this time of rising authoritarianism and fascism, if all centrist and leftist parties can do is keep the far right from forming governments, they will have done something that matters.
Talk to political parties, talk to candidates, demand that they work together. If they pontificate, organize in your riding a coalition of citizens who pledge to vote for the non-conservative candidate who is most likely to win.
The election could be as early as March. There is no time to waste. Unlike in France, Canadian elections don't have a second round.
Thank you for reading. I'm sorry to my non-Canadian readers. I hope that this was somewhat interesting for you too. Here’s a nice picture I took from a few years ago.
